TOYOTA TOP SPEED TEST ON A HANDLING TRACK!
author: Leon Botha
All you need to do to appreciate the tension under the crews is to sit, watch and listen.
The first remark about the rally after a roll of the eye or the pouting of the mouth is “hey man, this thing is quick!”
Every one have their own opinion – but all agree the next two days will definitely not be relaxing.
The Caledon area will shake this morning from very early when the S2000 cars start up from various places in town to get to scrutineering, but at about 11h40 when the first car on the road will break the silence on the great Jongensklip farm - the sound will play second fiddle.
The first 120 metres to the first Right One corner of the first stage followed a 100 meters later by a Right Two and 50 metres later a “long Left Three in” 100 metres over small Crest – will be the opener and the following “caution Right Five into Left Eight no cut” will settle the adrenaline level to about 114 octane or however the hell you measure that juice that makes things happen inside the body.
There will not really be many places where any one of the Top6 drivers will be able to get away from the other and a maximum difference of 5.5 seconds is expected between the Top 6 cars for stage One.
All the stages have gambling names – Twenty Ones being that of the first one and I hope gambling will not play a big role in this event because then the results may be turned upside down.
The difference between winning and losing will consist of that less that a fraction of a second a driver is unsure of when approaching a corner. The DVD they studied before the time combined with the calls I made while compiling the Route Notes, merely gives an indication – albeit a reasonable one, of what is about to happen, but there are so many other factors playing a crucial role that you can never really predict the outcome.
The big problem with this event is the many places waiting to catch you out. The smallest mistake or margin of over-driving will see to it that you lose time and that as we all know is the biggest problem – you simply do not make up lost time easily.
The winning pace will be very close to maximum ability of the S2000 cars – although I do believe that we are still waiting to see the peak potential of these cars in South Africa and the world for that matter.
So, if you are running near the peak and you manage to make a small mistake that costs you three or four seconds – you need to drive even harder and that my friend is where the paw-paw is about to hit the proverbial fan in the Cape.
There are no real mountains to fall off from, there are few very dangerous places – but when you make a mistake on this event – that mistake usually carries on for a few hundred meters – especially when you have not got the Dunlop rally tyres solidly on the ground.
The recent secret development done by Volkswagen probably based on that of the Skoda in Europe must make them the favourites on this event. I do not believe (although I will probably have to swallow my words) that Glyn Hall had enough time yet – in between developing a new Off-road vehicle and rally cars, to make enough progress to stay with the Polo’s?
Of course driving will play a role, but unfortunately Volkswagen offers three drivers that will stay with the very best under any circumstances. Gemmell and Cronje are exceptional drivers, but no more exceptional that Fekken, Kuun and Habig.
Then there is the single Ace that could be anywhere in the pack!
The Ford Fiesta of Conrad Rautenbach that has apparently been fitted with a brand new engine after the original one developed a problem during practise. All we really have to go on is the fact that it won the IRC Monte Carlo and the rest in South Africa is a bit of a smoky scene after the single Ford that came in first to upset the apple cart burned out in an open section during the Total Tour Natal Rally.
Will the Rautenbach car be able to keep the Volkswagens and Toyotas at bay, or will we here also see the hopes – hopefully not the car as well go up in flames?
I have no doubt that we will see an earlier attack from Rautenbach than what we had with the more conservative approach of Wilken in Natal. Conrad has lots of left-hand-drive experience and his WRC experience showed while driving an N4 into fourth spot in Natal!
The Ford however may not be able to keep the required pace throughout the event and the combined pressure from at least five enemies may be a bit much? A clean and fast run from the Ford may however still do the trick if he manages to keep to himself and stay out of the all out war that will without doubt rage between the Toyota and Volkswagen camps.
It will be interesting to see what happened between this and the last rally as far as Lategan and also van Niekerk go? Japie tested his car with the two works cars while Lategan kept a bit of a low profile when it comes to the Rallystar track. We also saw absolutely nothing of Visser du Plessis although I do not expect to see much from him on the event either as he still lacks hours behind the steering of the S2000. His driving style will also have to change dramatically before he will become a serious factor in this car.
If I have to select a dark horse – I will go with JP Damseaux in the Cape – but Lategan remains in the back of my head.
Knowing Hutchison – he will stick to his game plan to get more kilometres behind the steering of the S2000 before he will be happy to attack.
Joubert will try to pick up his pace but not at the expense of a finish.
Rueda did not show any pace for a while and we will have to wait and see what he has to offer, while the same goes for Ryan.
Jaco van Dyk saw that the pace in South Africa is not what he was used to in Namibia and I hope he will stick to building his pace, rather than throw caution to the wind to try and prove a point?
It is difficult to make any prediction in A7 but it will be silly to hold rally inexperience against Gavin Cronje. The combined lack of experience between driver and navigator in the car may however count a bit against their chances.
Chris de Wit is always a factor, but I have a feeling that he is not using the Route Notes as well as he could and that will on an event such as this one – carry about 60% of the success factor. The notes are the equalisers and added to his vast experience he should make use of every aspect he can manage to stay with the factory supported cars.
Gugu Zulu is not a new factor in this class and he has been there before. Previously he bodged his chances a bit and had to be content to drive an A5 again? Lets hope this time he concentrates on the job at hand rather than worry too much about the other factors.
In the Cape it will be silly to discard the efforts of Etienne du Toit and he may be the surprise card in the packet?
In N4 there are a single entry and survivor - who will probably also be scared away sooner than later by our fantastic "world standard" and horribly expensive rules and those who so eagerly apply them. Tjaart Coetzee should win this class but he tends to chase himself and may not see the finish?
A6 will go the either Tjaart Conradie or Leroy Poulter with the latter slightly ahead in my books. Poulter is one of that naturally fast drivers and the bonus points in my book come from the fact that he has been selected by one of the best talent spotters in South Africa – probably the only one, if you ask me – which is Glyn Hall.
N3 can go any direction – even up or down and I would not like to stick my neck out as I simply have no idea who may on the two days be able to put up a bit of a show. If I am forced to put a few Rand on anyone, my money would be on Amlay for a win.
Cleenwerck will walk A5 and probably also lead a few A6 cars as well if all goes well. Chad Lambert may however surprise a few wannabe's.
The rally starts at 11h00 this morning from the Caledon Casino and will finish after 11 stages at around 15h00 tomorrow - Saturday 27th March 2010.
One thing is certain – it is going to be a spectacle of speed held together by lots of luck and concentration.
Overall winners?
I would rather keep my opinion to myself but I am worried about the high speeds that will be demanded and the many small factors that can easily turn into major disasters.
It may sound a bit like a sissy – but I believe we need to bring the speed down by using chicanes and other artificial obstacles.
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